Baseball is coming back. We don’t know the final details yet. But, at the very least, we know the league is planning for a 60-game season.
On Tuesday, it was announced that MLB will implement a 60-game schedule. It will begin on either July 23 or 24, following a three-week training period for teams. Players are scheduled to report to training camps July 1.
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It was a rocky road to arrive here. The league and the players association could not come to an agreement on the number of games and the friction that has been on display over the past three months seems certain to linger into negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement after the 2021 season. Meanwhile, the pandemic itself remains a huge threat to the season as COVID-19 cases continue to rise in some parts of the United States.
But with baseball one step closer to returning, now’s a good time to look back on where the Blue Jays were before the shutdown and how this condensed season impacts their outlook for 2020.
Where were they when the shutdown began?
In what seems like a lifetime ago, the Blue Jays were just past the midpoint of spring training 1.0 when MLB halted play on March 12.
The team was beginning to take shape. New ace, Hyun-Jin Ryu was set to lead the pitching staff. Both Tanner Roark and Matt Shoemaker had performed well in early spring outings. Sophom*ore pitcher Trent Thornton had emerged as the favourite to win the fifth starter spot after Ryan Borucki experienced elbow tightness that stalled his progression.
With the introduction of 26-man MLB rosters in 2020, players such as Derek Fisher, Anthony Alford, and Rowdy Tellez were in the running for the final spot. (In our most recent roster projection before the shutdown, Andrew Stoeten predicted Alford would be the odd-man-out.) Versatile veteran Joe Panik had all but secured a spot on the team. In the bullpen, Jordan Romano came out firing in his early outings, hitting 96-97 mph on the radar gun, and was expected to make the club.
Meanwhile, the team’s young core, including Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero, was exuding confidence about the season ahead.
This is what Bichette said in mid-February about his expectations for his team. “I expect us to compete. I expect us to do really well,” he said. “We have a lot more talent than people realize. I don’t think people are taking into account that some of our guys are going to take steps forward and become really impact players. So, like I said, I’m really excited for what could happen this year.”
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What does the new format mean?
The schedule will look different this year, and not only because it’s a third of its usual length. While it’s subject to approval from the union, the Blue Jays schedule will predominantly feature inter-division play — reportedly 10 games each against Boston, New York, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Their remaining 20 games will be against National League East teams, all in an effort to reduce travel.
As for roster sizes, teams will have up to 60 players available to them, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. The season will begin with 30-man rosters, then shrink to 28 after two weeks and 26 after four weeks. The remaining players will be part of a taxi squad, which will be stationed at a separate site than the MLB team. For the Blue Jays, that likely means some prospects will get an opportunity to play with the major-league club this year, including top prospect Nate Pearson. (Here are nine other players who could earn time, too.)
With so many players — and likely no minor-league season — the Blue Jays, and every other MLB team, will have to get creative with playing time. Six or more man rotations could be the norm to start with. So too could the practice of piggybacking starters (using two starters in the same game, one proceeding the other). And for the first time, the DH will be used full-time in both American and National League ballparks. Other rule changes will see a runner start on second base during extra innings to avoid prolonged games.
Where will the Blue Jays play home games?
This is a complicated question.
Border restrictions for non-essential travellers between the United States and Canada remain in place through at least July 21. Meanwhile, under the Quarantine Act issued in March, the federal government requires “persons entering Canada by air, sea or land to isolate for 14 days if they have symptoms of COVID-19, or to quarantine themselves for 14 days if they are asymptomatic to limit the spread of COVID-19.”
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With these restrictions in place, the Blue Jays cannot play in Toronto.
The team’s preference is to play at the Rogers Centre, however unlikely it may be — and that was before they had to shut down their training facility in Dunedin, Fla. last week. Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro has been in regular contact with government officials, in pursuit of making Rogers Centre their home ballpark. However, the Canadian Press reported this week that Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, has not received a specific proposal to play in Canada from MLB.
The Blue Jays had been preparing for a scenario in which they would play home games at TD Ballpark in Dunedin. That included upgrading stadium lighting to meet MLB standards for night games. But that was before last week. The team has subsequently had all personnel at their Florida facilities tested. MLB has since closed all Arizona and Florida camps to be cleaned and disinfected.
While playing home games in Dunedin seems like the likeliest option, for now, other alternatives could include sharing another MLB ballpark or relocating to another minor-league team’s facility.
It’s expected the team will still hold their spring training 2.0 in Dunedin.
Does a 60-game season hurt or help the Blue Jays?
A typical 162-game season provides a large enough sample size for teams to perform true to their talent level. Bad teams can go on hot streaks and good teams can experience slumps, but over 162 games, usually, the best teams finish on top. A shortened season will allow for more randomness in the standings.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris looked at the difference between a 50- and 80-game season and found that “there’s a big gulf between a 48-game season and an 89-game season” in terms of legitimacy. A season around 60 games or so appears to be the benchmark to reaching some credibility.
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As for the Blue Jays, they’re a young team and therefore are more unpredictable than a veteran team with a more established track record. For that reason, it’s hard to say whether a shortened season would help or harm the Jays.
What about their playoff chances? Well, over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski has been adjusting his ZiPS projection model based on the various potential season lengths. In the pre-COVID-19 forecast, the model suggested the Blue Jays would finish 73-89 — a .451 winning percentage — in a 162-game season, with a 0.9 percent chance of making the postseason. If the season was 81 games, the model predicted they would finish 37-44 — a .457 winning percentage — but their playoff odds go way up, to 16.7 percent. In a 50-game season, the Blue Jays finished 22-28, with a winning percentage of .440, and their odds of making the postseason were 15.9 percent. In any case, at 60 games, their odds of making the postseason will be higher — but the Blue Jays are still very much a rebuilding ballclub. So, a greater chance, but it’s still unlikely.
Jayson Stark points out that under the 2020 schedule format, the Blue Jays will play seven teams that had a .500 record or better last year.
How did the time off impact the team?
The majority of Blue Jays players have been maintaining their workouts at home. A small number of players were working out at the team facility in Dunedin before it closed last week. Team management and the coaching staff have remained in regular contact with players, in order to continue to help them with training and preparation.
Back in May, Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker said: “We’ve probably gone above and beyond the communication process and making sure we’re keeping these guys in the loop, so when that day returns, when we get to spring training, hopefully, that we’re more than ready. I’d be shocked if there are other teams doing more. Maybe I’m biased, but it’s been pretty awesome to see. The whole staff has done a fantastic job keeping in touch with our players.”
The additional time off will have benefitted a few players who experienced injuries in spring training, such as the aforementioned Borucki. The stoppage gave him time to heal, and, also test out some mechanical adjustments. He has been throwing sides and according to Walker,“feels great, arm feels great.”
The stoppage may have allowed individual players to work on specific adjustments. Having another, albeit condensed, spring training will allow for some players to reset the impressions they first made back in February.
Kaitlyn McGrath is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Toronto Blue Jays. Previously, she worked at the National Post and CBC. Follow Kaitlyn on Twitter @kaitlyncmcgrath
